Fed seen on track for quarter-point rate cuts in Nov, Dec

(Reuters) – Federal Reserve policymakers are nearly certain to deliver a quarter-point reduction in short-term borrowing costs next week, traders bet on Tuesday, as a U.S. Labor Department report showed job openings dropped last month to their lowest since January 2021.

Analysts also took the report as confirmation that the U.S. central bank is on track for rate cuts at each of the Fed’s last two meetings this year, despite much stronger-than-expected job growth in September reported earlier this month.

“Overall, the report will caution the Fed against overreacting to recent rosy jobs data by prematurely moving away from its rate-cutting path when it meets next week,” wrote ZipRecruiter Chief Economist Julie Pollak.

Fed policymakers have said they do not believe the labor market need slow further to continue to make progress on bringing down inflation.

Still, neither the Labor Department report nor other data out on Tuesday suggested a sharp or imminent collapse in the labor market.

With just over one job opening for every job seeker, the labor market has cooled sharply from earlier this year, but the ratio remains little changed from August’s reading, Tuesday’s report showed.

Consumer confidence jumped in October, a separate report from the Conference Board reported, and the proportion of consumers who said jobs are plentiful rose.

Fed policymakers gather for their next two-day meeting a week from Wednesday, one day after U.S. voters cast their ballots in a closely contested election for control of the White House and Congress. Last month the Fed cut the policy rate by a half percentage point, to a range of 4.75%-5.00%.