Factbox-Brokerages see ‘uncertain’ 2025 on worries over potential Trump tariffs

(Reuters) – Uncertainties around U.S. policies may slow global economic growth modestly in 2025, according to major brokerages. They expect U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs to fuel volatility across global markets, spurring inflationary pressures and, in turn, limiting the scope for major central banks to ease monetary policy.

World economies and equity markets have had a robust year, with global growth expected to average 3.1% this year, a Reuters poll published in October showed.

Following are forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025:

Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:

Brokerage S&P 500 US 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CNY

target yield target

UBS Global 6400 3.80 1.04 157.0 7.60

Research

Goldman Sachs 6500 (next 4.25%(next 1.03(next 159(next 7.50(next

12-months) 12-months) 12-months 12-months 12-months)

) )

Nomura 135 6.93

Barclays (LON:BARC)

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) 6500

J.P.Morgan 4.10 (Q3’25)

U.S. Inflation:

U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025)

Brokerage Headline CPI Core PCE

Goldman Sachs 2.5% 2.4%

J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.3%

Morgan Stanley 2.3% 2.5% (4Q/4Q)

Barclays 2.3% 2.5%

Real GDP Growth:

Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025

Brokerage GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO AREA UK INDIA

UBS Global 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3% (for

Research FY 26)

Goldman Sachs 2.7% 2.5% 4.5% 0.8% 1.3% 6.3%

Barclays 3.0% 2.1% 4% 0.7% 1.2% 7.2%

Morgan Stanley 3.0% 2.1% 4.0% 1.0% 1.4% 6.5%

(FY25/FY2

6)

J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.2% 3.9% 0.8% 1.0% 6.0%

Citigroup (NYSE:C) 1.1% 1.0%

Nomura 4.0% 6.9%