Morning Bid: Resilience is the name of the game, Japan CPI eyed

By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. 

Risk assets in Asia are set to open positively on Friday after a show of fortitude on Wall Street saw U.S. stocks end a choppy session in the green, as local attention turns to the latest inflation figures from Japan.

Japanese consumer prices top the regional calendar, and investors also will be looking out for purchasing managers index data from Japan, Australia and India for the first glimpse into how these economies performed in November.

Annual core consumer price inflation in Japan is expected to have slowed to 2.2% in October from 2.4% in September, cooling for a second consecutive month on slower growth in energy prices, according to a Reuters poll.

The release comes a day after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will “seriously” take into account the yen’s impact on growth and prices, remarks investors took as a sign the BOJ could soon raise interest rates.

The ultra low-yielding yen is one of the world’s worst-performing currencies against the dollar this year, putting upward pressure on the price of imports.

The dollar has risen 10% against the yen since the Fed cut rates in September, a counter-intuitive move explained by the surprising – and surprisingly steep – rise in U.S. bond yields. 

But the yen is ripe for a rebound. It has been sold off heavily, speculators are holding their biggest short position in four months, and the BOJ could be taking a more hawkish turn.

The Japanese currency rose on Thursday for only the second time in nine days, and another rise of around 0.3% on Friday would seal its best week in two months. 

Asian stocks are also consolidating, after getting slammed last week. On the whole, the global backdrop as Asia opens on Friday is still reasonably positive. 

The upward momentum behind the so-called ‘Trump trades’ that gathered steam before and immediately after the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election has fizzled, but most of these bets still appear to be in play. Some more than others. 

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares are up 7% this week and bitcoin is up 9%, within reach of breaking above $100,000 for the first time.

This could easily happen in Asia on Friday, after U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler confirmed he will leave his post in January. Gensler is widely seen as a hard-liner on cryptocurrency regulation.

Indian assets, meanwhile, are under heavy pressure on the news that Indian billionaire Gautam Adani has been indicted for fraud by U.S. prosecutors and arrest warrants issued for him for his alleged role in a $265 million scheme to bribe Indian officials.

Stocks are the lowest in five months, and the rupee has never been weaker. 

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:

– Japan inflation (October)

– Malaysia inflation (October)

– Japan, Australia, India PMIs (November)