Fed’s Kugler says inflation on path to 2% target, job market is solid

By Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. inflation is likely on a steady path back to the U.S. central bank’s 2% target, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said on Tuesday, with the job market still “solid” even as it undergoes a “modest cooling.”

“I view the economy as being in a good position after making significant progress in recent years toward our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices,” Kugler said in prepared remarks to the Detroit Economic Club. “The labor market remains solid, and inflation appears to be on a sustainable path to our 2% goal.”

She did not in her prepared remarks indicate if she favors another quarter-percentage-point interest rate cut at the Fed’s Dec. 17-18 policy meeting, as anticipated by investors.

On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he was leaning towards another rate cut this month. Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday will give what are expected to his last public remarks before the meeting.

“Policy is not on a preset course. I will make decisions meeting by meeting,” Kugler said, repeating what has become boilerplate language for Fed officials at a moment when they are trying to avoid giving too much guidance about how policy is likely to evolve.

That has become particularly true since President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in last month’s U.S. election. Trump’s promises of import tariffs, tax cuts and an immigration crackdown could change the economic outlook in the coming months.

“The incoming administration and Congress have not enacted any policies yet, so it is too early to make judgments,” Kugler said.

But she used the bulk of her speech to make one point relevant to the coming policy debate, arguing that a jump in immigration in recent years was a positive supply shock which, along with a rise in productivity, allowed the economy to grow faster than expected while inflation continued to decline.

The Trump administration has pledged to deport undocumented immigrants in a move that, depending on the scale, could disrupt some industries and change current price and wage dynamics.

“The increase of workers was a positive shock and is notable because the underlying demographics of the U.S. heading into the pandemic were consistent with a slow-growing population and lower labor force participation,” Kugler said. “That dynamic got worse as the pandemic generated excess retirements and a fall in immigration.”