Jefferies upgrades Packaging Corp of America on strong market position and outlook

Investing.com — Jefferies analysts have upgraded Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG) to a “buy” rating, reflecting confidence in the company’s potential to outperform the market in the coming year. 

This move comes as the analysts foresee the company benefiting from several key factors, including improved industry conditions, market share gains, and a more favorable industry structure, especially as competitors in the sector shift their focus towards value-over-volume strategies.

The analysts point to Packaging Corp of America’s strong position as the only U.S.-based pure-play in the packaging sector, which has allowed the company to consistently gain share. 

Jefferies sees the manufacturing company as a primary beneficiary of the ongoing consolidation within the industry, including closures of less-efficient mills by major players like International Paper and WestRock (NYSE:WRK). This consolidation should help drive pricing stability and allow the company to increase its market share.

In particular, Jefferies notes that Packaging Corp of America is set to benefit from price increases in the containerboard sector, with industry insiders anticipating potential price hikes in early 2025. 

With a focus on cost-cutting measures and commercial streamlining, the company is well-positioned to leverage the improved industry dynamics to expand its margins.

The upgrade also comes as part of a broader outlook for the paper and packaging sector in 2025. Jefferies analysts forecast a more normalized inflationary environment, with increased promotional activity from consumer packaged goods companies providing an upside for volumes in the packaging industry. 

This is particularly evident in recent positive trends in box demand, especially in the food and non-alcoholic beverage sectors. 

The sector is also expected to benefit from a cyclical recovery, with macroeconomic factors, including the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts and a push for economic growth from the political sphere, adding to the optimism for the packaging industry.

Alongside the upgrade for Packaging Corp of America, Jefferies analysts have also expressed a cautious outlook for other names in the sector, including PTVE, which was downgraded following its acquisition by Novolex. 

Analysts at Jefferies see this transaction as a sign of accelerating mergers and acquisitions in the packaging space, with other companies like Sealed Air (NYSE:SEE) and Clearwater Paper (NYSE:CLW) potentially becoming takeover targets for both private equity firms and strategic buyers such as Suzano, a Brazilian paper and pulp producer.

Despite the challenges faced by the sector in recent years, including pressures from inflation, the analysts at Jefferies remain optimistic about the long-term prospects for the company, noting that its position in the U.S. market, ability to capture share, and improving industry structure should drive continued outperformance.