Projected air travel growth runs counter to climate goals, study says

By Joanna Plucinska

DUBLIN (Reuters) – The number of air passengers is projected to more than double by 2050, causing surging fuel demand and undermining the aviation industry’s steps to reduce its emissions, a study from climate advocacy group Transport and Environment showed on Monday.

As aviation industry leaders meet in Dublin this week at an annual finance conference where many plane sales are expected, the Brussels-based group called for the European Union to implement measures to limit the sector’s growth.

“It’s time to come back down to earth and put an end to this addiction to growth,” Jo Dardenne, the group’s aviation director, told Reuters.

Steps to tame fast-growing air travel could include limiting airport infrastructure growth and corporate travel while increasing taxation on the sector, the report said.

The airline industry, which accounts for about 2.5% of global carbon emissions, has vowed to use more sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in an effort to cut emissions and to reach net zero by 2050.

But scant supply and prices that are up to five times higher than traditional jet fuel mean little of the greener fuel is in use.

Monday’s report said fuel use by the industry was forecast to rise by 59% by 2050 from 2019 levels as passenger numbers increase.

With plane manufacturers Airbus and Boeing (NYSE:BA) both projecting high growth in the coming years and more planes in the sky, emissions are set to increase even with more efficient jets on the market and the use of SAF.

“The more they grow, the further away they move from it. At this rate, they will still be burning two billion barrels of oil per year in 2050, despite using SAF,” said Dardenne.

Airbus and Boeing did not respond immediately to a Reuters request for comment.

The airline industry has repeatedly pushed back on calls to curtail growth, saying the sector is essential to economic development and global connectivity.